I knew it was coming eventually, but the hurt from my first losing week still wasn’t fun. Yes, the picks went rotten last week.
For the first time this season, my picks against the spread were on the negative side of the ledger. I went 5-9 ATS to drop my record to 64-53-1 for the year. My straight up mark was 9-5 to get to 80-37-1 for the year. I also had my first losing week on the Pick Six Podcast with my best bets, going 3-4. That makes my season mark 31-17-1.
Now that the dud week is out of my system, it’s time to get back on track, which I plan to do.
All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
This rematch of the NFC title game last January has a different look to it for the 49ers in a big way. They are decimated by injuries, starting Nick Mullens at quarterback while being without George Kittle. They can still run the ball, which has been a problem for the Packers. But without Kittle and with a backup quarterback, it will be tougher to run it. The Packers will be thin at running back, but I think Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing game will move the ball and find a way to win against a depleted team.
Pick: Packers 28, 49ers 21
New York Giants at Washington Football Team (-3)
This game actually matters in the division race. That’s sick. The Giants are playing on a short week after losing to the Bucs Monday night, while Washington is coming off a bye. The more rested team will be the one that plays better as the defensive front has a big day. Washington takes it.
Pick: Washington 21, Giants 17
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Both teams come in on two-game losing streaks. The Titans have major issues on defense, while the Bears have major issues on offense. Something has to give, and I think it’s the Bears offense that gets it going. Titans win it, but it’s close.
Pick: Titans 31, Bears 30
The Vikings won at Green Bay last week by doing it the old-fashioned way: pounding the football. They will try and do that here with Dalvin Cook and should be able to run it. The concern is the Minnesota defense. But I think they showed some improvement last week that will carry over here. Vikings win another.
Pick: Vikings 28, Lions 23
The Panthers have lost three straight and now must travel to play one of the best teams in the league. The Chiefs will have an offensive explosion again here against the Carolina defense. Even with Christian McCaffrey likely back, it won’t matter. Chiefs big.
Pick: Chiefs 37, Panthers 21
This will be Jake Luton making his first start for the Jaguars. The rookie has a big arm, and he looked good in camp, according to team sources. But this is a big challenge. The Jaguars defense has been awful and Deshaun Watson should light them up. Texans take it.
Pick: Texans 35, Jaguars 20
This is one of the better games of the week. The Colts have won two straight as Philip Rivers has righted his season. But this is a big challenge in the Ravens defense. The Baltimore offense has run it well, but it will be the passing that wins this game. Lamar Jackson gets it going.
Pick: Ravens 28, Colts 27
This is another good game this week. This is a long trip for Seattle to face a good Buffalo team. But the Buffalo defense has really struggled the past month. That is good news for Russell Wilson. He will light up the Buffalo secondary. Seattle wins a high-scoring game as Josh Allen also will play well.
Pick: Seahawks 33, Bills 28
The Falcons have won two of three under interim coach Raheem Morris and have been rejuvenated a bit. Denver looked good coming back against the Chargers with Drew Lock leading it. This has a chance to be high scoring, but I think Matt Ryan will get the best of the Denver defense.
Pick: Falcons 30, Broncos 24
The Raiders impressed last week on the road winning at Cleveland. The defense came up big. They face a tough challenge in hot rookie passer Justin Herbert. The Chargers find new ways to blow leads seemingly every week. But that won’t happen here as Herbert has a big day.
Pick: Chargers 31, Raiders 27
The Cowboys are a mess, while the Steelers are the league’s best team. They are playing a third straight road game, which is usually tough. But this is one of those games where you can throw that out the window. They are much better than the Cowboys right now, who will likely start Cooper Rush with Andy Dalton on the COVID-19 list. The Steelers stay unbeaten.
Pick: Steelers 34, Cowboys 20
The Dolphins have the top-scoring defense in the league, while the Cardinals were clicking on offense before the bye. This is a long trip for the Dolphins, but they won at San Francisco earlier this year. Even so, the Cardinals will carry over their hot play from before the bye and find a way to win this one. Kyler Murray beats Tua Tagovailoa.
Pick: Cardinals 28, Dolphins 21
The Bucs are playing on a short week and didn’t look great against the Giants. But the Saints are playing consecutive road games. New Orleans won the first meeting, but this is a much better Tampa Bay team. The defense will get all over Drew Brees. Tom Brady will beat him in this one.
Pick: Bucs 27, Saints 17
What a bad Monday night game this is for us. The Patriots have lost four straight, while the Jets haven’t won yet. They won’t win here either, but it will be close. The Patriots aren’t a good team either. Take the points.
Pick: Patriots 23, Jets 21